Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)

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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 3, 2024
Updated:Fri May 3 09:02:03 UTC 2024
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (5)
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (6)
30%31,4751,196,241Wichita, KS...Enid, OK...Salina, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Hastings, NE...
15%141,1598,378,594Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (7)
15%190,40825,500,170Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Aurora, IL...
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (8)
15%186,21416,384,398Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (9)
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (10)
D4Mon, May 06, 2024 - Tue, May 07, 2024 D7Thu, May 09, 2024 - Fri, May 10, 2024
D5Tue, May 07, 2024 - Wed, May 08, 2024 D8Fri, May 10, 2024 - Sat, May 11, 2024
D6Wed, May 08, 2024 - Thu, May 09, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.

Forecast Discussion

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030900 SPC AC 030900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON... ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day period of organized severe thunderstorm potential appears likely across parts of the central to eastern CONUS next week, beginning on Day 4/Monday across the Plains, and continuing through at least Day 6/Wednesday. ...Day 4/Monday... A negatively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward over the northern/central Plains on Monday. Pronounced low-level mass response will encourage rich low-level moisture to advect northward over the southern/central Plains, as a surface low rapidly deepens over the northern High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear and at least moderate instability are expected to be in place ahead of a surface dryline extending across the southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms will likely erupt along the length of the dryline by late Monday afternoon from southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. Supercells are likely to be the dominant mode initially given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Both very large hail and tornadoes will be possible with these supercells as they spread eastward across the southern/central Plains through Monday evening. With a southerly low-level jet forecast to strengthen to at least 50-60 kt Saturday evening, a corresponding rapid increase in low-level shear will likely support a continued threat for tornadoes with any discrete convection. Some of these tornadoes could be strong. The severe threat will likely continue Monday night with eastward extent across the Plains, before convection possibly weakens some towards early Tuesday morning. Given increased confidence in high-end severe potential, a 30% severe area has been introduced from parts of southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. ...Day 5/Tuesday... The large-scale upper trough/low is forecast to gradually occlude over the northern Plains on Tuesday. But, an enhanced mid-level jet and embedded vorticity maximum will likely overspread parts of the Upper Midwest, mid MS Valley, and OH Valley through Tuesday evening. An expansive warm sector will likely be in place across these regions ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Robust convection should develop along/ahead of these boundaries through the day. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will likely exist to support organized severe thunderstorms, including supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards. The northeastward extent of the warm sector remains somewhat uncertain into the OH Valley. Still, some severe risk will probably persist into Tuesday evening/night with eastward extent across the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley/Midwest. Expansion of the 15% severe area may be needed in later outlooks, pending better model agreement and increased confidence in the eastward extent of rich low-level moisture and related instability. ...Day 6/Wednesday... The upper trough/low should gradually evolve eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. While there are still some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of an embedded shortwave trough, there appears to be enough agreement in the synoptic pattern to include a 15% severe delineation for Wednesday for parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks and towards the mid MS Valley. Across these areas, strong instability is forecast to develop east of a front/dryline. With enhanced mid-level flow persisting with a westerly mid/upper-level jet, organized severe thunderstorms should once again develop Wednesday afternoon. Supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards may occur. The northern/eastern extent of the severe threat is unclear, as the convection from Tuesday may tend to limit better low-level moisture return into the OH/TN Valleys. Depending on model trends over the next few days, the 15% severe area may need to be expanded to include these regions. ...Day 7/Thursday and Day 8/Friday... Some severe threat may continue on Thursday from parts of TX into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, generally along/south of a front and any convection that develops Wednesday. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area at this time, but trends will be monitored. A severe risk also appears possible next Friday across the same general regions, but confidence in the placement of the front and convection is even lower than Thursday. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
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Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)


What is a severe weather outlook? ›

Public Severe Weather Outlooks

The Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO) is issued on Day 1 for all category 5-HIGH-magenta risks and 4-MDT-red risks that are driven by tornadoes and/or damaging winds.

What is a outlook mean in weather? ›

Outlook. A broad discussion of the weather pattern expected across any given area, generally confined to forecast periods beyond 48 hours.

What does the severe weather outlook chart depict? ›

Description: This product depicts the area where the forecaster expects convection or severe convection to occur during the first 24-hour period. The product denotes the areas that have a marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, or high risk of severe thunderstorms during the period.

What is thunderstorm short answer? ›

Thunderstorm - A rain-bearing cloud that also produces lightning.

Will this tornado season be bad in 2024? ›

AccuWeather is predicting 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes in the United States in 2024, above the historical average of 1,225, but fewer than the 1,423 twisters that were tallied in 2023. Pastelok added that there could be an uptick in tornado activity in California.

When was the last EF5 tornado? ›

That happened to 22 homes in Joplin, Missouri, during the deadly May 2011 tornado an EF5 rating, according to a comprehensive damage survey published in 2012. After the May 20, 2013, Moore, Oklahoma, tornado, the National Weather Service rated the virtually destroyed Briarwood Elementary School as EF5 damage.

What does 100% weather mean? ›

When you see a "100% chance of rain," it doesn't mean it's going to pour everywhere, all the time. Think of it like this: the forecasters are super confident that rain will fall somewhere within a certain area, but they're not sure exactly where or for how long.

Is the weather outlook accurate? ›

Even now five-day weather forecasts are about 90% accurate, but 10-day forecasts are more like 50%. Anything beyond that becomes speculative. The Met Office and others do now issue long-term forecasts, but these give probabilities rather than making exact predictions.

What is the difference between weather forecast and outlook? ›

Unlike traditional weather forecasts, which consist of weather maps that predict exactly how much rain may fall or the daily maximum temperature of an area, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks offer users forecasts of future weather conditions relative to what's normal for their region.

What does 10 hatched mean? ›

The hatched area on the bottom map indicates a 10% or greater risk of an EF2 or stronger tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of a point.

What does MDT mean in weather? ›

MDT – Moderate risk – this level corresponds to 30-45% probability of organized severe weather occurring in a 40 km radius from a location. Additionally, 15% or higher probability of extremely severe weather is expected. Organized severe weather is expected, moderate intensity and coverage.

What does 15% tornado risk mean? ›

Having a 15% probability means 15 times the normal odds of a tornado nearby, meaning it should be taken seriously. The probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail also have the same meaning as they do for tornadoes, but typically will be higher numbers than for tornadoes, since they are much more common.

What comes first, thunder, lightning, or rain? ›

Nearly always, rain will happen before lightning and thunder. Of course, the specifics really depend on the situation, and "dry thunderstorms" are possible, if rare. Thunderstorms form after rapid convection - the rising of hot air from the surface into the sky.

What is a thunder class 8? ›

Thunder is the sound caused by lightning. Depending on the distance from and nature of the lightning, it can range from a sharp, loud crack to a long, low rumble (brontide). The sudden increase in pressure and temperature from lightning produces rapid expansion of the air surrounding and within a bolt of lightning.

How long can a thunderstorm last? ›

Single-cell storms may produce brief heavy rain and lightning. A multi-cell storm is a common, garden-variety thunderstorm in which new updrafts form along the leading edge of rain-cooled air (the gust front). Individual cells usually last 30 to 60 minutes, while the system as a whole may last for many hours.

What is an example of a severe weather event? ›

Weather-related extreme events are often short-lived and include heat waves, freezes, heavy downpours, tornadoes, tropical cyclones and floods.

What is a severe weather risk? ›

High risk means widespread severe thunderstorms are expected with particularly intense long-track tornadoes likely. This category is only issued a handful of times a year or even less. A high-risk category is reserved for the most dangerous of severe weather outbreaks.

What are 5 examples of severe weather? ›

Learn all about thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, lightning, floods, damaging winds and severe winter weather.

What are severe convective outlooks? ›

Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2.


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