Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)

FAQs

What is a severe weather outlook? ›

Public Severe Weather Outlooks

The Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO) is issued on Day 1 for all category 5-HIGH-magenta risks and 4-MDT-red risks that are driven by tornadoes and/or damaging winds.

Outlook. A broad discussion of the weather pattern expected across any given area, generally confined to forecast periods beyond 48 hours.

Description: This product depicts the area where the forecaster expects convection or severe convection to occur during the first 24-hour period. The product denotes the areas that have a marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, or high risk of severe thunderstorms during the period.

Thunderstorm - A rain-bearing cloud that also produces lightning.

AccuWeather is predicting 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes in the United States in 2024, above the historical average of 1,225, but fewer than the 1,423 twisters that were tallied in 2023. Pastelok added that there could be an uptick in tornado activity in California.

That happened to 22 homes in Joplin, Missouri, during the deadly May 2011 tornado an EF5 rating, according to a comprehensive damage survey published in 2012. After the May 20, 2013, Moore, Oklahoma, tornado, the National Weather Service rated the virtually destroyed Briarwood Elementary School as EF5 damage.

When you see a "100% chance of rain," it doesn't mean it's going to pour everywhere, all the time. Think of it like this: the forecasters are super confident that rain will fall somewhere within a certain area, but they're not sure exactly where or for how long.

Even now five-day weather forecasts are about 90% accurate, but 10-day forecasts are more like 50%. Anything beyond that becomes speculative. The Met Office and others do now issue long-term forecasts, but these give probabilities rather than making exact predictions.

Unlike traditional weather forecasts, which consist of weather maps that predict exactly how much rain may fall or the daily maximum temperature of an area, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks offer users forecasts of future weather conditions relative to what's normal for their region.

The hatched area on the bottom map indicates a 10% or greater risk of an EF2 or stronger tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of a point.

What does MDT mean in weather? ›

MDT – Moderate risk – this level corresponds to 30-45% probability of organized severe weather occurring in a 40 km radius from a location. Additionally, 15% or higher probability of extremely severe weather is expected. Organized severe weather is expected, moderate intensity and coverage.

Having a 15% probability means 15 times the normal odds of a tornado nearby, meaning it should be taken seriously. The probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail also have the same meaning as they do for tornadoes, but typically will be higher numbers than for tornadoes, since they are much more common.

Nearly always, rain will happen before lightning and thunder. Of course, the specifics really depend on the situation, and "dry thunderstorms" are possible, if rare. Thunderstorms form after rapid convection - the rising of hot air from the surface into the sky.

Thunder is the sound caused by lightning. Depending on the distance from and nature of the lightning, it can range from a sharp, loud crack to a long, low rumble (brontide). The sudden increase in pressure and temperature from lightning produces rapid expansion of the air surrounding and within a bolt of lightning.

Single-cell storms may produce brief heavy rain and lightning. A multi-cell storm is a common, garden-variety thunderstorm in which new updrafts form along the leading edge of rain-cooled air (the gust front). Individual cells usually last 30 to 60 minutes, while the system as a whole may last for many hours.

Weather-related extreme events are often short-lived and include heat waves, freezes, heavy downpours, tornadoes, tropical cyclones and floods.

High risk means widespread severe thunderstorms are expected with particularly intense long-track tornadoes likely. This category is only issued a handful of times a year or even less. A high-risk category is reserved for the most dangerous of severe weather outbreaks.

Learn all about thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, lightning, floods, damaging winds and severe winter weather.

Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2.